Thursday, September 1, 2022

Authentic Human Connection: A Key Component of a Culture of Care In the Online Classroom

 Bill Davis, Lead Faculty, Department of Organizational Studies, and Sarah Korpi, Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Director, Division of Continuing Studies Assistant Director, Learning Engineering Group, University of Wisconsin – Madison 

Bill Davis

Do you want to motivate and inspire your students to reach for higher goals? During our combined 37 years of teaching in higher education, we have had the opportunity to observe the evolution of online classrooms and the unique challenges they possess in terms of engagement. Below are the five key insights and ideas we believe are most relevant to establishing authentic human connections and a flourishing culture of care.

Students Matter | Authentic Human Connection

 We believe students matter, and they are the reason we exist. According to Schlossberg, Lynch, and Chickering (1989, p.21), student success is dependent on the degree to which students feel they "matter." The four dimensions of mattering are:

  • Attention
  • Importance
  • Ego-extension
  • Dependence

Sarah Korpi
Our experience tells us that by being genuine, authentic educators, we demonstrate to students that they matter. Utilizing a positive and helpful servant transformational leadership style is one way to work to build authentic human connection. Servant transformational leaders work selflessly to serve students and equip them for success. They inspire a shared vision, model the way, enable others to act, and encourage the heart. They promote intelligence and problem solving, give personal attention and coaching, and they gain respect and trust.

Building authentic human connection with our learners helps students feel seen and valued and that they belong in our classrooms, all things that promote student persistence and success. According to Maggie Wooll (2021, para. 6): "Human connection is a deep bond that's formed between people when they feel seen and valued. During an authentic human connection, people exchange positive energy with one another and build trust. Human connection makes you feel heard and understood and gives you a sense of belonging." Serving students by being positive, timely, and reliable shows them that you care. What we model for our students through our actions and ways of being is often reflected in how our students interact with each other in our courses; leading by example and demonstrating the behavior we wish to see is powerful. We can further promote student persistence and success by delivering high-quality teaching practices, innovating to find new and better ways to serve and reach students, and by providing caring consideration.

Good Leaders Understand the Culture and Context They Lead, Teach and Coach In

Each group of students is unique, and what works well for one group may not work well or at all for another. As educators, we are the leaders of our classrooms. We understand the course content, the way the course fits into the overall curriculum, the institutional context we teach in, and the dynamics of our unique groups of learners. As the course leader, modeling consistency and staying engaged with learners promotes student success.

Keep students in your line of sight. Involve and engage them where you can, sharing information and rewarding and recognizing the good they do, even if they haven't yet fully reached the learning outcomes. Help them grow their skills, knowledge, and confidence levels by leading and teaching with care. Most importantly, be mindful that some adult learners are connecting to their education for the very first time. Some learners are reconnecting after a significant break in learning. Taking the time to understand your students' situations and the roles they balance is one easy way to promote authentic human connection. In addition, this information can help you to plan each week to serve and support them as they engage with your class and balance their other responsibilities. Being aware of all support resources and sharing them regularly helps normalize utilizing those resources in support of learning.  

Lead and Coach with Care

As you lead and coach with care in your online classroom, be aware of your role's importance and purpose. Always have as a goal to provide students with a meaningful and gratifying learning experience. Keep the main thing the main thing, student learning. Lead with care and emotional intelligence, having a high sense of self-awareness, social awareness, self-management, and relationship management. Good leader-coaches understand the content and culture they lead and the situational variables and dynamics in an online classroom.

So, in every student interaction, work to connect with your students, build valuable rapport and provide students with high-quality engagement and feedback. Where you can, be proactive and take the initiative to serve and coach them outside the classroom (one-on-one coaching via zoom or phone, etc.). Be a positive role model, leading by example and putting forth high-quality work, innovation, and caring in all the roles in which you serve students.

Consider these suggestions:

1. Observe and listen to your student's passions and purpose, recognizing any apprehensions they may have.

2. Lead with care when life happens and situations arise. Set the right tone, show empathy and compassion as you listen, and provide valuable advice, and coaching with care. Help students identify and eliminate any road blocks to success.

3. As you coach, remember these tips from Project Manager (2016):

  1. Coaching Leaders:
    1. Unlock potential
    2. Coach with questions

                                                               i.      Ask:

1.       "What is the goal?"

2.       "What are you trying to achieve?

3.       "How can you get there?"

Coaching with care also means providing positive encouragement to your students. Be positive, immediate, and reliable. The impact will be building trust and demonstrating to students that you care.

Purpose, Passion, and Vision

Remember, it is an honor and a pleasure to share in our students' learning journey. You will be sharing and working to enrich, support, and empower your students, and many times they will present opportunities for you to provide valuable advice or role modeling. Be aware of the vital role you play. Value the time you share with each student in every class and work to influence positive outcomes and meaningful results.

It's important to remind your students that the steps they take to achieve their vision include their plans and the processes they implement to achieve their goals. Goals allow students to focus on their objective, mobilize to achieve a goal, and increase their performance (Locke and Latham, 1968). Remind students of visualization techniques so they can imagine how their life will look once they have achieved their goal (Mind Tools, n.d.). Finally, engage in dialogue and help them see their progress and define their purpose, passion, and vision if needed.

Purpose

Purpose provides students with a sense of meaning and guides their life and career decisions. It helps them shape their goals and gives them a sense of direction.

Passion

Passion is a student's sense of energy for something. According to Hudson and McLean (2006), "Your passions are your internal energy source, the fire or determination you have for reaching some destination up ahead. They tell you why you are on this journey and what you want from life. They are your push and pull." These energies might be derived from achievement, a search for meaning, compassion/contribution, and play and creativity. Every adult has the capacity to tap these passions.

Vision

Vision is what you hope the world will look like in the future because of your commitments and actions today. An inspiring and meaningful future vision can motivate and move you into action.

Identify and Overcome Barriers to Create Authentic Connection

In the classroom, instructors can use barriers to learning as opportunities to create authentic connection. Barriers create opportunities for outreach and connection and can be celebrated as connection points. As instructors, we can work to differentiate between practices that promote authentic connection in the face-to-face classroom and those that promote authentic connection in the online learning environment. Regardless of modality, reflecting on and mindfully selecting engagement strategies creates the platform for subsequent conversations about identified barriers, and strategies learners can employ to overcome these barriers.

Our education, experience, and board experience in ADEIL - Association of Distance Education and Distance Learning have instilled a strong belief that instructors are a powerful force. They can be transformational servant-style leaders who are authentic and genuine. Instructors can help students change their lives when they choose to pursue higher education. Simply put, instructors can lead, lift, and equip students for success.

According to Rich Diviney (2021), who authored The Attributes: 25 Hidden Drivers of Optimal Performance, "You can't hide you (authenticity)." Among the attributes, authenticity is the most important in building trust. Authenticity cannot be fake or copied. Consistency of action, thought and values is the simplest measure of authenticity. Consistency builds trust, and a lack of consistency builds doubt. When instructors demonstrate a positive attitude, lead with consistency and care, and continue to nurture students in their learning continuum, they become authentic leader-coaches. They help create the right learning environment in their classrooms. 

References

Davis, B. (2021). Balancing roles for adult learners. Retrieved from https://www.uagc.edu/blog/balancing-roles-for-adult-learners

Davis, B. (2020). Why passion matters to adult learners. Retrieved from https://www.uagc.edu/blog/why-passion-matters-to-adult-learners

Diviney R. (2021). 25 Hidden Drivers of Optimal Performance. New York. Random House

Hudson, F.M., & McLean, D.P. (2006). Life launch, a passionate guide to the rest of

your life. Santa Barbara, CA: Hudson Institute Press.

Mind Tools (n.d.). Locke's goal-setting theory. Retrieved from https://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newHTE_87.htm

Project Manager (2016). How to Give Feedback [Video]. Retrieved from https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8Mh3bikqS4

UFP Research Fellows Roundtable Session 3

 UFP Research Fellows Roundtable Session 2 reveals key information, analysis and findings from research grants at University of Arizona Global Campus (UAGC).   

  • Live Learning Mathematics – Holly Ourso, College of Arts & Sciences
  • Immersive experiences for student engagement – Dan Tinianow, College of Arts & Sciences
  • The Use of Digital Badges to Enhance Student Engagement and Retention – Shari Schwartz, College of Arts & Sciences
YouTube description, "Each virtual gathering will highlight multiple initiatives from the 2021-2022 University Fellows Program. Primary investigators will share brief updates (10-15 minutes) about their initiatives along with any findings that are available at this point, and time will be set aside for Q&A and discussion after each presentation." 

If you are interested in connecting to UAGC YouTube page you can do that by (Clicking Here).

Thursday, August 18, 2022

UFP Research Fellows Roundtable Session 2

 UFP Research Fellows Roundtable Session 2 reveals key information, analysis and findings from research grants at University of Arizona Global Campus (UAGC).   

  • Live Learning Mathematics – Holly Ourso, College of Arts & Sciences
  • Immersive experiences for student engagement – Dan Tinianow, College of Arts & Sciences
  • The Use of Digital Badges to Enhance Student Engagement and Retention – Shari Schwartz, College of Arts & Sciences
YouTube description, "Each virtual gathering will highlight multiple initiatives from the 2021-2022 University Fellows Program. Primary investigators will share brief updates (10-15 minutes) about their initiatives along with any findings that are available at this point, and time will be set aside for Q&A and discussion after each presentation." 

If you are interested in connecting to UAGC YouTube page you can do that by (Clicking Here).

Tuesday, August 9, 2022

UFP Research Fellows at UAGC Live Session 1

UFP Research Fellows Session 1 reveals key information, analysis and findings from research grants at University of Arizona Global Campus (UAGC)

o   Bridging the motherhood penalty: Identifying the specific challenges working mothers face in completing their education and advancing their careers and strategies to support their success – Brandy Havens, Forbes School of Business & Technology

o   Quality Improvement in Online Course Design: A Case Study – Hwangji Lu, College of Arts & Sciences


YouTube description, "Each virtual gathering will highlight multiple initiatives from the 2021-2022 University Fellows Program. Primary investigators will share brief updates (10-15 minutes) about their initiatives along with any findings that are available at this point, and time will be set aside for Q&A and discussion after each presentation. "

If you are interested in connecting to UAGC YouTube page you can do that by (Clicking Here).

 

Friday, May 6, 2022

Student Loan Forgiveness: An Economic Overview

We have started to hear the calls for student loan forgiveness more loudly over the past few years- and more recently with some congressional members urging the President to move towards loan forgiveness. With so much at stake, now is the time to seriously consider the specifics of the proposals and evaluate what it means for the state of the economy. The consequences of ignoring this issue has dire effects for the long-term economic prospect of the U.S. with a possible global impact.

When the Department of Education (ED) was formed in 1867, the goal was simply to make schools more effective and accessible for students. But with the passage of the GI Bill and the National Defense Education Act (NDEA,) the role of the ED expanded and the first federal student loans began to be disbursed. It was not until 1972 that Congress passed the Basic Educational Opportunity Grant, also known as Pell Grant. It was in the early 1990s that the federal government implemented the Federal Direct Loan Program, which allows students to borrow student loans directly from the government rather than going through private institutions. Today, all federal loans are required by law to be direct loans, but private lenders are also able to provide student loans. As of the writing of this article, the outstanding federal student loan debt is $1.76 trillion.

It is worth looking back and asking ourselves why the federal loan and grant programs were established in the first place. The first student loan was provided in 1958 under the NDEA act. This was done as part of the federal government’s effort to create a better-educated labor force to compete against the Soviet Union. The move came after the Soviet Union launched the Sputnik satellite. These first student loans were provided only to a select group of students studying targeted subjects such as science and engineering. However, the implementation of the loan program became more than just a geo-political endeavor. Because of the popularity of these programs, over time, the federal government expanded the loan programs to all fields of study. Part of the reason for this expansion was the recognition that college education provides a significant amount of positive externality to society. Better-educated people provide better economic value to the society; they are more entrepreneurial, pay more taxes, and engage in less criminal activities- all of which provide economic benefits to the community. Therefore, in order to increase the demand for higher education, the federal government implemented federal grant and loan programs with one simple notion- that having more college-educated students equates to more economic activity and better society.

After adjusting for inflation, the student loan debt has increased nine-fold over the last two decades, from $187 billion in 1995 to $1.7 trillion in 2021. So, how did we get to this point and who is to blame for it? If you talk to a baby-boomer, they might argue that they worked hard during the summer months to be able to pay their tuition for the year and therefore graduated college without a single penny of debt. The problem with this argument is that the cost of colleges has increased significantly over the past few decades. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, the average total in-state cost of attending a degree-granting public college has increased over 10 times, from $1,856 in 1980 to over $19,747 in 2020, adjusting for inflation. Several factors, including state funding cuts and increasing demand, are responsible for the dramatic increase in college costs over time.

The huge amount of student loan debt has a significant impact on the economy. In fact, according to a recent survey conducted by bankrate.com, 21% of borrowers have delayed getting married, 26% have pushed back having kids, and 36% have put off buying a home. That translates into a reduced young labor force, a larger aging population, and less economic activity. If this rate of student loan debt continues along the same trend, we are looking at a whole generation of population with less productivity and less wealth who are not able to contribute at their full potential to the country’s economic activity. Most economists fear that this means that we are looking at very bleak economic growth in coming decades. In fact, some data already point to this. According to NPR, the millennials’ net worth is about 11% less than that of the previous generation. The income and wealth disparity between these generations is getting wider. According to data from the Federal Reserve, when baby boomers were under 40, they held 13% of household wealth, compared to just 5.9% for millennials under 40 in 2020, and that gap is expected to increase.

Looking at all these economic implications of student loan debts, it is clear that this huge amount of debt is a problem. So, what can we do about it? One proposal, mostly from Congressional Democrats, is that we should forgive most or all of this debt. However, there are a lot of logistical challenges to this proposal along with some significant economic implications if it is not done right. If all the student loan debt is erased, what happens to the loans held by new borrowers and how do you change the student loan structure for future borrowers? Do the students who have paid their debt get a refund? There has not been a definitive answer to these questions from the ED or the Congressional members. Despite all these logistical challenges, I would argue that we should move towards targeted and incremental debt forgiveness for student borrowers. The future of this generation and the future American exceptionalism depend on it.

According to the Committee for Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a blanket $10,000 forgiveness for all borrowers would eliminate debt for 15 million borrowers and boost the GDP by $31 billion over three years. Since these loans are direct loans, it would not add to the federal debt stock. In addition, the current Income Based Repayment (IBR) plan allows for some debt forgiveness for some borrowers after a certain number of payments over several years. Therefore, there are a few actions that the ED can take towards student loan forgiveness: 1) Reform the IBR plans so that the repayment amount and time is shortened. Under the current plan, a borrower who lives in household whose income is $100K has an IBR monthly payment of approximately $550, even if the borrower does not have any personal income. 2) Reform the future loan structure so that new borrowers know the implications of having student debt. 3) Consider forgiving student loans of $10,000 every year, with borrowers having to make monthly payments based on the reformed IBR.

The question, then, is how will these adjustments affect the macroeconomic health of the country? Currently, the unemployment rate is just 3.6%, but the GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2022 is -1.4%. Because of the newly released data on the growth rate, the general fear of recession (and possibly stagflation) has grown. Therefore, I’d argue that this is a good time to start some form of student loan forgiveness. However, since the fear of inflation is still strong, caution must be used to implement the forgiveness program. An influx of thousands of dollars in the economy as a result of loan forgiveness would create an inflationary pressure by boosting the aggregate demand in the economy. The amount of the inflationary pressure depends on how the student borrowers decide to spend (or save!) the money. The Federal Reserve might have to adjust the money supply to make sure that the inflation does not increase further. Since the core CPI does not include food and energy prices, I’d argue that there will be a very marginal impact in the core CPI as reported by the BLS. According to the Institute for College Access and Success (TICAS,) 65% of the student borrowers who have defaulted on their loans had incomes below 200% of the federal poverty line for their family size. Therefore, we should expect most of the money from forgiven loans would go towards financing basic necessities, such as food and housing, which would not affect the core CPI.

Forgiving the student loan debt in an incremental way as I suggested would amount to be the largest transfer of wealth in American history. However, doing nothing about it could be catastrophic.

Dr. Robin Dhakal

Dr. Robin Dhakal Bio:

“Dr. Robin Dhakal is an Assistant Professor in the Forbes School of Business and Technology. He earned a M.A. and a Ph.D. in Economics from University of South Florida and a B.A. in Business/Economics and Mathematics/Computer Science from Warren Wilson College. His academic research focuses on development economics and political economy. He has been teaching Economics in colleges and universities for the past nine years. “


 References:

Brief History of Federal Student Loans | NCLC Digital Library. (2017). National Consumer Law Center. https://library.nclc.org/sl/0103-0

Anderson, T. (2015, August 5). Debt-Locked: Student Loans Force Millennials to Delay Life Milestones. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/better/money/debt-locked-student-loans-force-millennials-delay-life-milestones-n404636

Bhutada, G. (2021, February 4). The Rising Cost of College in the U.S. Visual Capitalist. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/rising-cost-of-college-in-u-s/

Gitlen, J. (2022, January 19). The History of Student Loans in a Timeline. LendEDU. https://lendedu.com/blog/history-of-student-loans

Minsky, A. S. (2022, April 21). What The Student Loan Forgiveness Memo Means For Mass Student Debt Cancellation. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/adamminsky/2021/11/04/what-the-student-loan-forgiveness-memo-means-for-mass-student-debt-cancellation/?sh=3aa0da061efc

*The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of any other entity.

Monday, April 18, 2022

“Walk the Talk” UFP Project Studying How to Help Faculty Become More Equity-Centered Moves to Next Phase

On Friday, March 25th, over fifty UAGC faculty (Full-time and Associate) and staff participated in the unique virtual interactive experience, "Factuality the Game" that simulated structural inequality in America. Their participation supported an ongoing University Fellowship Project, “Walk the Talk,” that seeks to explore what the ignitor for movement from talk to action is. What is an effective way to help faculty and staff become more culturally responsive and equity-centered in both thought and action? Figure 1 is the word cloud of the Factuality participants.


Figure 1
Word cloud of the Factuality participants.

The next step in the study is that participants will read and discuss the book, From Equity Talk to Equity Walk by Tia Brown McNair, Estela Mara Bensimon, and Lindsey Malcolm-Piqueux. Over four sessions, participants will discuss chapters entitled: From Equity Talk to Equity Walk, Building an Equity-Minded Campus Culture, Using and Communicating Data as a Tool to Advance Equity, Aligning Strategic Priorities, and Building Institutional Capacity, and Building Capacity for Equity-Mindedness among First-Generation Equity Practitioners. Researchers will lead participants in discussions of these rich chapters in one-hour virtual sessions.

Another tool in this multi-pronged approach is the voluntary, self-guided 21-day Equity Challenge. An equity challenge allows participants to keep growing and learning through this change process. So, over 21 days, participants can further their learning through the following categories: read, listen, watch, notice, connect, engage, act, reflect and stay inspired. The researchers sent each participant an online tracking tool to track and reflect on their learning. At the end of the three-week challenge, participants will complete a survey.

 

The researchers are excited about the next phase of the project! Stay tuned!


Background on Researchers:

Dr. Teresa Handy
Dr. Teresa Handy is a Core Faculty member in the Master of Arts in Early Childhood Education Leadership College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Arizona Global Campus. Teresa has been a Turn the Tide Facilitator at UAGC, a Power of One Faculty member, and a Donna Beegle Certified Poverty Coach. She earned the Ed.D. specializing in Education Leadership and the Master of Arts in Teaching from the University of Memphis, where she earned the distinction of Outstanding Leadership and Policy Studies Doctoral Student. She earned a Master of Social Work degree from the University of Chicago. Teresa completed her undergraduate work in Sociology and Education at Spelman College in Atlanta, Georgia. She has worked in public, charter, and private schools as an administrator, early childhood and elementary educator, and learning specialist. She has also served as a diversity consultant, helping local and national organizations develop their inclusion initiatives. Her recent children's book, "There is an Elephant in my Ear," was written for children ages 3-5 to help begin courageous conversations about differences in the preschool classroom.

You may contact her at Teresa.handy@uagc.edu

Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/teresa-leary-handy-ed-d-30277a4

Dr. Tamecca Fitzpatrick
Dr. Tamecca Fitzpatrick is the Program Chair for the Master of Art in Early Childhood Education Leadership in the College of Arts and Sciences at the University of Arizona Global Campus. She obtained her Ed.D specializing in Early Childhood Education from the University of North Texas. Her Master's degree in Education and bachelor's degree in Psychology were earned at the University of Tennessee at Knoxville. Her work experience includes positions as an elementary classroom teacher, a Diversity Scholar Lecturer, Professor, and Author.

Monday, March 28, 2022

Economic Impact of the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

Dr. Robin Dhakal

The recent conflict in Eastern Europe between Russia and Ukraine has tested many international norms, institutions, and systems. The strengths and relevance of international alliances, such as the United Nations (UN) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), have been directly challenged by this conflict. Even though the West has been reluctant to make this conflict a direct conflict between Russia and NATO, many countries have applied crippling economic sanctions against Russian oligarchs, government officials, and the Russian economy at large. Most recently, the Biden-Harris administration announced that the U.S. will stop importing oil from Russia. With these unprecedented international economic pressures on Russia, an obvious question arises- what will be the impact on the U.S. and the global economy?

While any war is undesirable, from the global economic perspective, the timing of this conflict couldn’t be worse. We just went through the worst pandemic in recent history and our economy has been recovering from a pandemic-induced recession followed by a high level of unemployment. While the U.S. is not in a direct conflict with Russia, we should expect the Ukraine-Russia conflict to impact the U.S. economy and to influence its monetary and fiscal policies.

It is helpful to know a few key statistics prior to a discussion about the economic impact of this conflict. First, the Russian Federation has a gross domestic product (GDP) of about $4.32 trillion (PPP, 2021 estimates), which is just 1.3% of the global economy, according to the World Bank. However, Russia’s exports make up one quarter of its GDP. There is thus reason to believe that the targeted economic sanctions imposed by the West could have a significant impact on the Russian economy. In 2021, the U.S. imported $30.76 billion worth of goods from Russia, according to the UN Comtrade Database. Oil and oil refinery products amount to sixty percent of U.S. imports from Russia. Hence, the recent announcement that the U.S. is banning imports of Russian oil will surely impact the Russian economy. However, despite the sanctions from the West, Russia’s economy is not likely to collapse thanks to its largest trading partner- China. In 2020, Russia’s exports to China amounted to $50 billion, of which 15% were oil and gas (an amount that is expected to grow during and following the Ukraine conflict). It is also important to note that two of the largest trading partners for China are the U.S. and the European Union. Therefore, it seems unlikely that China would jeopardize its own economy in order to help Russia by exclusively aligning itself with Russia.

So, what does all of this mean for the U.S. economy?

Most of the impact that this conflict will have on the U.S. and global economy will be seen in subsequent supply chain disruptions. The sanctions and economic restrictions placed on Russia mean that we are creating a virtual wall around Russia. Companies are now unable to use Russian airspace or Russian ports to transport goods. This means that it costs companies more money to transport their goods over longer air and sea routes. This is especially true when it comes to the flow of goods between China and Europe. Most of the Russian ports are closed to cargo ships which means companies must find alternative shipping routes. Because of this, since the start of the conflict, other ports around the world, including the seaports in California, have seen increased traffic. In addition, because Chinese warehouses and ports are still not functioning at full capacity because of COVID and its new wave of infections, the supply chain has been further disrupted. Furthermore, the rising oil and fuel prices have made the transportation of goods even more expensive. All of this is bad news for the world, especially since the global economy grew 2.5 times larger over the past 30 years because of ocean transportation, according to a report by the World Bank.

Perhaps the sector hardest hit by the supply chain disruption is the auto industry. Many auto manufacturers have stopped production in Russia. For example, Nissan halted production at its factory in St. Petersburg, and Renault suspended its operation in Moscow. In addition, auto manufacturers rely on many auto parts from Russia and Ukraine. This means that the auto producers are having a harder time finding chips and other parts. For example, Audi halted production for weeks because of the shortage of parts after the start of the invasion. Ford’s plant in Germany reported a similar disruption because of the shortage of parts.

In addition, we are also expected to see an impact in the global food market. Russia and Ukraine combined produce over 30% of wheat and 15% of corn in the world. Because of the conflict and the subsequent sanctions and supply chain disruption, most of the stores of wheat and corn are not expected to hit the global market. Those two products are also essential ingredients in a variety of food products we consume, such as bread, pasta, cereals, sweeteners, etc.

All of this means that we should expect to see shortages and possibly even higher inflation in the U.S.

There are a few economic scenarios that are worth analyzing if the conflict does not end soon. First, the combination of higher energy prices and supply chain disruptions means that the economy experiences a negative supply shock, which may result in stagflation. Although there is no concrete evidence of stagflation occurring in the U.S. economy yet, it remains a possibility if this conflict continues. Because there are no easy solutions to stagflation, the Fed and Congress must navigate the usage of policies carefully, such that we do not enter a bigger recession while trying to tackle inflation.

A second scenario is even more plausible: the conflict increases inflation and affects some specific industries, but the U.S. GDP and unemployment are healthy. This is a relatively easier scenario for the Fed and Congress to tackle. With appropriate policy tools, the Fed can try to decrease the money supply to dampen the fast-economic growth in the hopes of slowing down inflation. In fact, on March 16th, the Fed approved the first interest rate hike in over three years. Even though this is a step in the right direction, the Fed has to navigate these tricky waters carefully, because the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia recently released a revised estimate of the GDP growth rate for the U.S. economy, taking it down from 2.1% to 1.8%.

In either of these scenarios, Congress can aid the Fed by passing appropriate fiscal policy bills that are not likely to increase inflation. Slowing down some discretionary spending like the general government, defense, and foreign aid expenditures would lower government expenditures which will ease inflationary pressure. In addition, reducing targeted tax credits in energy and housing sector and reducing subsidies on fossil fuel industry could help address inflation. However, these steps need to be taken with caution and in conjunction with the Federal Reserve System.

Dr. Robin Dhakal
Dr. Robin Dhakal Bio:


“Dr. Robin Dhakal is an Assistant Professor in the Forbes School of Business and Technology. He earned a M.A. and a Ph.D. in Economics from University of South Florida and a B.A. in Business/Economics and Mathematics/Computer Science from Warren Wilson College. His academic research focuses on development economics and political economy. He has been teaching Economics in colleges and universities for the past nine years. “


References:

GDP, PPP (current international $) - Russian Federation | Data. (n.d.). Data.Worldbank.Org. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=RU

Reuters. (2022, March 1). Factbox: China-Russia trade has surged as countries grow closer. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/china-russia-trade-has-surged-countries-grow-closer-2022-03-01/

Trading Economics. (n.d.). Russia Exports to China - 2022 Data 2023 Forecast 1996–2020 Historical. https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports/china

United States Trade Representative. (n.d.). Russia. https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/europe-middle-east


*The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of any other entity.